desolate

Today is the first day on intrade.net that the markets say that John McCain is more likely to be elected President than Barack Obama. Somebody remind me why I bother to get out of bed.

Author: jeremy

I am the Ethel and John Lindgren Professor of Sociology and a Faculty Fellow in the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University.

25 thoughts on “desolate”

  1. It’s narrowed today, but there’s quite a spread between Intrade and the Iowa Electronic Markets — not to mention spreads between president.dem and president.obama etc.

    I just hope teh MSM falls out of love with John McCain fast enough…

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  2. I don’t trust IEM when it conflicts with Intrade (much smaller stakes, includes students who have to participate for assignments).

    It’s weird how Intrade hardly moved at all through the Dem and Rep conventions, and then Obama has essentially sunk ten points since the Rep convention ended.

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  3. STOP IT. There is enough Palinmania here to make me ill w/o hearing stuff like this. I am counting on elites like you to wipe the lipstick off the pit bull. Now get to work.

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  4. I thought that prediction markets followed the polls. So whatever swing you see in the market will probably swing back if the polls swing back. But yes, it’s depressing. It’s depressing for what a McCain-Palin win (or even his current standing in the polls) says about the electorate, and it’s depressing for what a McCain-Palin win in November will mean for the country.

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  5. At a volunteer meeting today our (20 year old pre-med student) local organizer noted that many of the newly registered voters haven’t been polled yet. And – that lots and lots of (especially young) voters don’t have landlines – just mobile – so they don’t show up in the polls. This is my story and I’m sticking to it!

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  6. Give it a minute — Femsoc is right about the cell phone only people. She was interesting but now it is obvious she is not being truthful. The war(s) — 3 by my count since we now know we have been invading Pakistan, the economy . . . the stakes are too high for people to ignore this. I am optimistic. But keep giving money and campaigning.

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  7. at first i thought the Palin pick was a joke. Then i thought it was designed to fail so McCain could replace Palin and add a “saviour” for the Republican ticket in October. Rice? Lieberman?

    now i think it was cold, calculating, cynical, and absolutely perfect for America.

    i am very afraid.

    as long as they keep her reading speeches, most Americans will never learn anything about her and she will contintue to come off as a “maverick” and a fighter. As opposed to a liar and completely unqualified.

    dark times ahead, i fear.

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  8. I am still reasonably optimistic because Obama has, by all accounts, a superior ground game. It was key to his victories against Clinton and it will only get revved up further for Nov 4.

    That said, the fact that McCain’s campaign is now being driven by a Rove aide, who has gleefully driven the campaign into the gutter, scares me a bit. It’s entirely possible that they can get away with lies and bluster for the next several weeks.

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  9. I tell you what my mother told me when I expressed a similar sentiment: shut up and do something. Start volunteering. Another former Wisconsin soc prof emailed me to tell me that he was doing three hours of phone calls a week for the campaign. He encouraged me to do the same. I am. I now extend the challenge to you. It also helps you feel better. Like you’re not sitting back, watching a disaster unfold, but engaged in some small activity that might prevent it. Sure, you could be setting yourself up for a worse disappointment… but I’d feel worse if I did nothing. So, volunteer!

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  10. What worries me about the post-convention increase in GOP support(@5, 6), is that it might not be a bounce that fades. The other explanation might be that the convention provided “information” that allowed the Bradley-effect “Undecideds” to come out of the closet. If that’s the case, they’re not going to go back to being undecided, and they’re certainly not going to go over to Obama.

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  11. @12.shakha: my wife told me the same thing…. I am now volunteering too, albeit less than I’d like to. And I live in something at least approaching a swing state this time around so it’s worth the effort. (I used to be a very political person, worked a ton on the Mondale-Ferraro, Al Gore for Senate the first time he ran, Paul Simon, Dukakis-Bentsen, and Clinton campaigns, as well as lots of community organizing stuff…. burned out, to some extent, with antiwar activism around Gulf War I.)

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  12. @10. Tina – thanks for the shout-out!

    I am pretty optimistic about Obama’s chances in this race – Karl Rove tactics aside. First, Obama has pulled much closer in key states than Kerry was four years ago. Second, the long primary season helped the Obama campaign learn how to take attacks. I have been impressed with how well he has responded to several “scandals” and has, largely, been able to swing attention back to his agenda. Lastly, as I noted in the post Tina referenced, he is in a good position in terms of states that he needs to win in order to take the election. With his superior ground organization, a coalition of labor and community organizations (gasp!) coalesced around his candidacy, and his fundraising prowess, I think that he has a great shot.

    Now, I need to finish my post-doc application so I can go out and volunteer…

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  13. Being a life-long Cubs fan (no, really), I can’t help but draw a sports analogy between the Democrats and the Cubs. Over the last few elections, and especially the last three presidential elections, I keep thinking that, on paper, we look good. Then as the season, or campaigning, begins the signs are good and I start feeling comfortable. But then I start getting this strange feeling, that gets worse every day, that maybe today is that day that things start to head south. Some days things look better, and some days worse, but why can’t we just really live up to our potential and finally tie everything up? Anyway, for both the Cubs and the Democrats I am in complete suspense, and it pains me to know that I still have a couple months of this. I may need to find a place to hide in a few more weeks! Oh and while volunteering has helped to reduce some anxiety, it also increases it when see how many people clearly believe every anti-Obama the comes into their inbox!

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  14. I have been impressed with how well he has responded to several “scandals” and has, largely, been able to swing attention back to his agenda

    But what agenda is he promoting these days? Certainly he’s not emphasizing the things that I would argue attracted people to his candidacy in the first place, such as seeming to stand strongly for ending the war.

    Here’s a take I found compelling:
    “The Obama Poll Drop: It’s the issues, stupid”
    by Michael Colby
    http://www.counterpunch.org/colby09092008.html

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  15. For the last couple of days, he’s been promoting his education-reform agenda in Virgina promoting his education plan. It’s not perfect, and, as I’ve noted elsewhere, he’s irritating the base. What attracts activists, volunteers, and supporters to win the primary isn’t what attracts independent voters to win the general election.

    While I agree that Obama can’t concede the issues that made him popular, I think it is worth bearing in mind that it was not issues alone that got Obama elected. His superior organizational strategy and ground campaign is what really delivered him the primary. His people out-worked, out-hustled, and out-smarted both Clinton’s and Edward’s people (the latter is especially impressive because Edwards had been building capacity since he lost in 2004).

    This is drastically different than either the Gore or Kerry campaigns. Obama’s goal is to expand the electorate, get people excited and energized to vote, and then win a large enough piece of independent voters in the last couple of months to swing close states. It’s going to come down to getting out the vote in a few key states and the long primary season means that he has a much stronger ground operation in those states with smarter people than either Kerry or Gore had.

    It’s somewhat ironic that Palin thinks she’s funny mocking him for being a community organizer, but if she loses it is going to be precisely because he is an organizer that she does.

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  16. This isn’t the first time I’ve heard the argument that younger voters are not represented adequately in the polls since they’re more likely to be in CPO (Cell Phone Only) households. But do we know for a fact that none of the polling organizations are incorporating CPO respondents? Sure, it’s much more expensive, but it’s certainly done nowadays.

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  17. Eszter, as of May, Pollster.com reports three survey outfits are using CPO supplemental samples: Gallup, Pew, and CBS/NYT. I imagine others are adding it as they develop the capability.

    Pew has an interesting report about the effect of including CPO respondents. They find that there is a one to two point difference in results (certainly important in close races) mostly because survey research firms use weighting to try and build a nationally representative sample.

    Interestingly, however, not including cell phones really does make a difference in the Obama/McCain match-up according to Gallup’s managing director.

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  18. “My personal theory is that Intrade has a hair-trigger Republican bias which is not found in the other markets, because Intrade appeals to, and is marketed to, the more Republican-leaning segments of the U.S. population.”

    from “Is Intrade out on a limb?” by Emile Servan-Schreiber (I Googled quickly to see if he’s related to J-J. but I couldn’t find anything)

    http://www.midasoracle.org/2008/09/12/is-intrade-out-on-a-limb/ linked to by Tyler Cowen

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