The other big winner in Iowa on Thursday was prediction markets, as they had swung sharply for Obama and Huckabee shortly after the caucuses began and well before CNN was presenting the races as anything other than up in the air. I have drunk the Kool-Aid on them so much that I basically can’t abide listening to professional prognosticative political analysis anymore, or at least if I do, I’m evaluating the analyst by how well what s/he is saying accords with the market prediction. Prediction markets are like a “No Spin Zone” that’s really so. Anyway, sometime during the night, Obama passed Clinton and now is rated by the market as slightly more likely to be the nominee. Clinton had an advantage of 30-some percentage points a week ago.
If Obama gains and Clinton loses another half percentage point, betting on him versus her will almost match exactly the chances for betting “boy” versus “girl” for parents having a newborn.