ncaa women’s lacrosse championship predictions

My predictions for the NCAA Women’s Lacrosse Championship.  

Here’s my guesses for the first round. I also have power rankings and a little bit on data gathering. I’ll update the thread for each round. Update: I’ve put the winner in bold.

Date Underdog Favorite Line Total Fav win %
05/10 High Point Loyola -5.5 22.0 93.4%
05/10 Princeton Duke -2.5 22.0 77.5%
05/10 Jacksonville Denver -2.0 32.0 72.0%
05/10 Dartmouth Boston College -1.0 21.0 63.8%
05/10 Monmouth Navy (8) -9.0 17.0 98.8%
05/10 Towson Stony Brook -5.0 17.0 92.7%
05/10 Penn Virginia -2.5 16.0 79.0%
05/10 Stanford Notre Dame -1.0 27.0 60.8%
05/10 Connecticut Massachusetts -2.0 21.0 73.6%
05/10 Canisius Penn State (7) -6.5 22.0 96.3%

Round 2 Update. All games scheduled for Sunday, March 12th. Update: I’ve put the winner in bold.

Time  Underdog Favorite Line   Total   Fav win %
12pm Navy (8)  Duke -1.5 22.0 67%
12pm Stony Brook Maryland (1) -4.0 21.0 87%
1pm Virginia Georgetown (6) -1.5 19.0 66%
1pm Massachusetts Penn State (7) -1.5 25.0 67%
1pm Denver Florida (5) -8.0 27.0 98%
1pm Loyola North Carolina (3) -5.5 20.0 94%
2pm Stanford Northwestern (2) -6.5 26.0 96%
4pm Dartmouth Syracuse (4) -9.5 21.0 98%

Quarterfinal Update. All games scheduled for Saturday, March 18th. Now using new and improved algorithms!

Time Underdog Favorite Line   Total   Fav win %
2pm Florida (5) Syracuse (4) -0.5 23.0 56%
8pm Penn State (7) Northwestern (2) -6.0 23.0 97%
12pm Duke Maryland (1) -6.5 22.5 98%
1pm Virginia North Carolina (3) -5.0 21.0 95%

Current Championship Odds. As of Sunday, May 19th. (Based on my predictions for semifinal and possible championship match ups.)

  • Maryland – 1/1
  • Syracuse  – 7/2
  • North Carolina – 9/2
  • Northwestern – 6/1

Semifinal Update. All games scheduled for Friday, March 24th.

Time Underdog Favorite Line   Total   Fav win %
5pm Northwestern (2) North Carolina (3) pk 22.0 54%
7:30pm Syracuse (4) Maryland (1) -1.0 22.5 64%

Championship Update. Game is scheduled for Sunday, March 26th.

Time Underdog Favorite Line   Total   Fav win %
8:00pm North Carolina (4) Maryland (1) -1.5 22 69%

27 Comments

  1. Posted May 9, 2013 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    I’d like the under on the Jacksonville-Denver game, please. Tell me where to transfer my bitcoins for it to be official.

    (What % of all women’s lax games have 32+ goals? Can’t be very high, can it?)

    Thanks for providing the bit on webscraping. I didn’t realize the connection between my beloved spring sport and white racist web forums.

    Like

    • Posted May 10, 2013 at 5:52 am | Permalink

      Fun fact: LS regression predictions based on more than one extreme value can give you implausible estimates. Line is now 29.5 if you want more action.

      Like

  2. klhoughton
    Posted May 10, 2013 at 10:16 am | Permalink

    Some very familiar names from the Men’s side, but a few notables missing.

    Nice to see Towson and Princeton as underdogs. Are you really offering Canisius at about 28:1? (No, I’m not going near it.)

    Like

  3. Posted May 10, 2013 at 5:21 pm | Permalink

    OK, it’s iffy weather here in Evanston, where the Stanford vs. Notre Dame game starts in a couple of hours. Both teams know if they win they are just going to lose to Northwestern in front of a raucous crowd on Sunday. Stanford probably gets day off in Chicago if they lose; Notre Dame would go home tonight. So I’ll take Notre Dame to win at the appropriate odds.

    I’ve deposited my bitcoins in the appropriate location. Password is “fetner”.

    Like

  4. Posted May 11, 2013 at 6:07 am | Permalink

    I don’t think I’ve ever tuned into scatterplot for sports news before, but…what happened?

    Like

    • Posted May 11, 2013 at 6:37 am | Permalink

      Stanford came back from down one with two minutes left to upset Notre Dame 8-7, but the Denver/Jacksonville total was a 21, so jeremy came out even for the day. Dartmouth upset BC, and Canisius mounted a nice comeback, but ran out of time again favorite Penn State. All the other favorites advanced. Round 2 lines coming out today, where I’ll predict one actual upset–I think unseeded Duke is 2/1 to beat #7 Navy at Navy.

      Like

  5. Posted May 11, 2013 at 5:55 pm | Permalink

    I would like a parlay in which Northwestern wins, but doesn’t cover the spread, and the under on that game as well.

    The Florida women are part robots/part monsters from outer space and now are playing with a chip on their shoulder, so every opponent should be very afraid. They will humiliate the Denver team and make them all wish they had field hockey or clarinet scholarships instead. Of this, I am sure. But not sure if this means they will win by more than 8. Should be a way to bet that one team will have at least twice as many goals as the other. Eh, still, I’ll go with Florida covering the spread, but not for the same number of satoshis.

    Like

    • Posted May 11, 2013 at 7:04 pm | Permalink

      That parlay pays 4.2* to 1. Totals are looking a shade high overall, so I’ll need to look into that before the sharps bankrupt me.

      While Maryland is still heavy favorite, they have the toughest draw of any of the top seeds. If I had to guess, I suspect that someone associated with the ACC is punishing them for leaving the conference.

      *1/(.5*.5*.96)

      Like

    • Posted May 12, 2013 at 3:46 pm | Permalink

      Argh. Lost my parlay. But, having the spread made it more exciting. Stanford had a dead-on shot with 10 seconds left that was irrelevant except that they would have beat the spread had it gone in. But, great save by the NU goalie. (Yes, I cheered.)

      Florida rang up a 12-1 halftime lead on Denver, but then apparently chained up the monsters and powered down the robots in the second half, only winning 16-5. Even so, I hope the University of Denver has a good counseling psychology program to help those women when they get back home.

      Like

      • Posted May 12, 2013 at 6:23 pm | Permalink

        I was sweating that end of the game too. Very happy for the garbage time goal that was meaningful only to you, me and Ali Cassera.

        I thought Florida was going to go over the total all by themselves. Laxpower and I both have them as 2nd, right behind Maryland. Somewhat unfair that they won’t get HFA next week against Syracuse. I’ll probably have that game as even money, although I might shade that a point or two because you’ll still give me action on Florida at like -3.

        Like

  6. Posted May 12, 2013 at 7:19 pm | Permalink

    Cassera is a sociology major, if I remember right from Senior Day, so an extra cheer for her getting the decisive goal.

    That Gainesville-Syracuse trip on commercial airlines has to make the home-field advantage for Syracuse even bigger. But Syracuse beat Florida last year in the Final Four after Florida’s winning goal was nullified after a stick check, so the monsters on the Gator team will be out for revenge. (Unclear to me if the requisite emotions have been programmed into the robots on the Florida roster, but they will be fully charged.)

    Like

    • Posted May 13, 2013 at 10:47 am | Permalink

      Roadtrip to Syracuse? We are right on your way. I’ll prepare the guest room.

      Like

  7. Posted May 13, 2013 at 6:37 pm | Permalink

    Hurling is the game Lacrosse is trying to be, incidentally.

    Like

  8. Jenn Lena
    Posted May 13, 2013 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    I’m still upset about that joke at field hockey’s expense.

    Like

    • Posted May 13, 2013 at 10:37 pm | Permalink

      Yo, I took floor hockey in college taught by the University of Iowa’s field hockey coach and it was freaking awesome. Iowa won the NCAA field hockey title in 1986, a feat made more remarkable by the fact that not a single high school in Iowa has had a field hockey team since the Great Satan of Girls’ Volleyball rose in the 1960s.

      Like

  9. Posted May 13, 2013 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Even with Syracuse having the home-field advantage, if Florida and Syracuse played ten times, Florida would win nine times, and the other time the Syracuse women would fake a campus pertussis outbreak to avoid having to play.

    The NU-PSU totals have been 14 and 17 goals in their two games this year, so I’ll also take the under on that game. NU will win, not sure if they’ll cover.

    Like

    • Posted May 18, 2013 at 10:36 am | Permalink

      The Syracuse-Florida game is in the Carrier Dome and Syracuse does have three All-Americans, so perhaps it will not be the rout I anticipated. I’m still picking the Gators, though. Either way, I feel confident that Maryland, the putative #1 team that faces the winner, is rooting mightily for Syracuse.

      BTW, Northwestern’s star player is currently leading the poll for SI women’s college athlete of the year.

      Like

      • Posted May 19, 2013 at 6:24 am | Permalink

        Best weekend for the lines. Two favorites covered and two don’t. Two totals over, two under. Plus, didn’t you mortgage all your real estate in Second Life to fund the Florida wager? More importantly, #goheels.

        BTW, I voted for North Carolina’s star field hockey player to be the SI women’s college athlete of the year, despite the fact that she choose to do a semester abroad at Duke.

        Like

  10. Posted May 19, 2013 at 11:24 am | Permalink

    Oy, I wish the Second Life real estate covered it. Instead, I’m going to be gold farming all day.

    Fortunately, though, I get NU as a slight underdog in Friday’s game. I’m going with the ‘Cats. In Kelly we trust.

    Like

  11. Posted May 24, 2013 at 3:16 pm | Permalink

    Less than an hour until gametime! My beloved and I will be watching from the local BW3 that has been designated as the official place to see the game by NU Lax. Hopefully it won’t be like last year when we went to BW3 but their connection to ESPN3 was so poor and delayed we ended up watching on our iPad and spoiler-cheering two seconds before everyone else.

    We have mortgaged the whole of Farmville holdings and placed it on the ‘Cats. I tried to also cash in my Twitter klout but it turned out I didn’t have any.

    Like

    • Posted May 24, 2013 at 3:50 pm | Permalink

      I’ll be listening to the wnur radio broadcast. While I would rather have a #goheels broadcast, there isn’t one and, I prefer boosterism over neutrality in my sports color.

      Like

  12. Posted May 24, 2013 at 6:13 pm | Permalink

    I am inconsolable. And destitute.

    Like

  13. Posted May 24, 2013 at 6:43 pm | Permalink

    If it is any consolation, the WNUR play-by-play announcer was the best student sports broadcaster I’ve ever heard. It took me an embarrassingly long time to connect that with your sports journalism program.

    Like

    • Posted May 26, 2013 at 1:02 pm | Permalink

      Yeah, the journalism students here are really strong. It’s a historic strength of Northwestern, and has led to some tensions as it keeps working on how to remake itself in response to the rapid reconfiguration of journalism as a profession. They are betting a lot on the phrase “integrated marketing communications,” among other things.

      Like

  14. Posted May 25, 2013 at 12:36 pm | Permalink

    My model has UNC with a one in three chance of beating Maryland. Since we have already lost to them twice this season, that means we are guaranteed to win this time. I love stats.

    Like

    • Posted May 27, 2013 at 12:09 pm | Permalink

      I would have been more surprised by the outcome had you not shown that it was a statistical certainty. Congrats to the Tar Heels!

      Like

      • Posted May 28, 2013 at 9:13 am | Permalink

        As far as sporting events go, it was nearly perfect. Upset of an undefeated team for the championship. High quality, fast paced play. Lead changes. Multiple overtimes. Dramatic save followed by a game winning goal 20 seconds later at the other end of the field. A Tar Heel national championship.

        Like

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